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Advocate: Talk about the three-way race for governor [between Tina Kotek (D), Christine Drazen (R), and Betsy Johnson (“NAF” or unaffiliated)] – recent polls show a virtual tie between Kotek and Drazen, with Johnson far behind. What outcome do you see?

Campbell: I am not even going to predict whether the Democrat or Republican will win. It’s really, really, neck-and-neck. It depends, really, who turns out to vote. This is where the Supreme Court case overturning Roe V. Wade is … really going to weigh in, because if Democratic voters turn out more, then that is going to sway numerous elections.

So usually third [party] candidates don’t pull from the major parties, but in this case, I think [Johnson] might because she seems to be appealing to more Democratic voters than non-Democratic voters, even though she’s pretty mixed ideologically. 

Advocate: What about [one of] the state ballot measures, such as Measure 114 on gun control?

Campbell: That’s probably going to pass. And what makes it so strict is, lots of states have similar requirements I think, but just not all of those. Some states require permits, others don’t. Some states require safety, others don’t. But the limits on the magazine rounds, very few states have actually passed that. So, the reason why [some observers are] looking at this as such strict gun control is because all … of those things are in there, which is unusual, but each individual item is not that unusual. States have been talking about them for a long time and implementing them. 

Most Americans are for gun control –well over 80% want some kind of regulation on them. It’s kind of misconstrued in the media that Americans are anti-gun control laws. They are not. It’s just this rabid 20% that are. Most Americans are kind of on the same page about it. The issue is more enforceability … that’s where the people that oppose the measure aren’t opposed in principle, they are opposed pragmatically. And they are worried about the cost. 

One other ballot measure you should talk about is the ability for the minority [state senators or representatives] to walk out of the legislature [Measure 113].

It’s kind of interesting – on the one hand the [argument] that they should not be able to do that is, ‘Look, like wow,  these are elected officials, they need to turn out to work and vote.’ The argument against [requiring] that … is when you have a super-majority, like the Democrats have in the state legislature currently, it means the minority party has zero power, so this is the only way they can exert any influence whatsoever. Since votes aren’t close there’s no real need for the Democrats to compromise, so [walking out] prevents a slam dunk. On the other hand, there is a reason there’s a super-majority, … the voters put them [Democrats] in there, and therefore Republicans need to follow the system … and not be obstructionist.

Advocate: For Portland city council changes, it looks like Portland voters may approve a major overhaul in the way city council runs. This would add a full-time city manager, divide the city into four geographic zones with three members per zone – and the biggest change would be ranked voting, the process designed to minimize extremists and push candidates to the middle.

What do you think about that? 

Campbell: Okay, let’s start with the ranked voting. So that means that when you vote for a candidate, say five people are running, you rank them. … It eliminates extremism because very few people will pick the extremist as their No. 1 choice. By nature, the extremists will never make the top two. Especially in America, because despite what the media is portraying, we are middle of the road, we are not extremist at all. Maybe about 20% of the population is rabid but unfortunately, they’re dominating social media, they’re dominating Twitter, and they’re dominating the political scene, but that’s not really how Americans feel. 

As far as the restructuring, I think voters will approve because as we all know Portland is a real mess. It’s just not working, so I think people are very desperate for a change. And normally this kind of change does not pass because voters do not like change, but in this case, I think it might.

Advocate: Any overriding thoughts on the race for U.S. House or Senate? How much of an impact has the Dobbs ruling (Roe V. Wade being overturned), Russia’s war, inflation, etc. had on these races?

Campbell: I have zero predictions because there’s two major factors. One is the Dobbs decision – if that affects voter turnout largely, it will very much influence those races. And the second is really where Republicans are at, because the MAGA faction and traditional Republicans, they’re split, it’s about 50/50 as far as we can tell, which isn’t much.

Advocate: Yeah, the polls haven’t been too accurate about that.

Campbell: That’s the wild card, right there. ‘What are Republicans going to do? Are they going to vote for these MAGA candidates or not?’ And some of them are like, ‘Okay, I’m just not going to vote,” so if that happens and then more Democrats turn out due to the Dobbs ruling, then that will really affect races. If those two effects don’t come in to play, then those races are pretty close. 

The economy is weighing on people’s minds, that’s the No. 1 issue, far outweighing any other issue, and abortion for Democrats is listed in the top three issues, which indicates they might turn out to vote, but maybe not.

I mean, what really affects people to turn out, to go to vote, is how they feel that day if they don’t have a mail in ballot system, like the weather has the most effect of all. … With all those unpredictable [variables] out there it’s not going to be a normal election, that’s for sure. 

Ukraine really isn’t an issue because both parties are pretty much on the same side so it’s not going to really divide candidates.

Advocate: What does it mean in the next two years if, say, the Democrats keep the U.S. Senate but lose the House, or what happens if they lose both the Senate and the House?

Campbell: I’m just going to be cynical here: not much.

Congress has been obstructionist, they’ve operated under obstruction for so long that… they haven’t really passed any major legislation since ‘Obama Care,’ the Affordable Care Act, and that was a long time ago. So nothing is getting done, and if that [White House/Senate/House split] happens, nothing will continue to get done. [Congress] acted quickly on COVID and assistance to Ukraine, so when there is true bipartisan support they do act, but when there’s not bipartisan support nothing has been getting done. Immigration, health care, voting laws, those are all major issues, the Dreamers – that are long overdue for action, and it is just unfortunate.

My big hope is that voters will replace the obstructionists, but they keep voting them into office. It’s… kind of a culture that has sunk in.

Advocate: Yeah, as soon as somebody [president/majority party] does one thing somebody comes in just undoes it.

Campbell: That’s the problem with these executive orders. President Trump faced it, and also President Biden was facing it, and President Obama faced it. When Congress refuses to act, presidents are squeezed into this position where the only way they can get things done is through executive orders. And that is not good, because as you say, they can change [back] with every president, it’s not consistent, and the president wasn’t designed to carry out legislation, that’s not how the system works.

But part of me doesn’t blame any of them because if Congress isn’t going to do anything, then what are you supposed to do? And then it depends who gets in there. If we get factionalists, and I would call the MAGA folks, like the Tea Party, they were kind of anti-government and they don’t really stand for anything. I think if some of the more extreme candidates get in there [elected], things are not going to improve. But we will see. 

reporter